获得感：概念、机制与统计测量

获得感作为一个极具中国特色的本土化概念，近年来得到了越来越多的重视。获得感有一个从顾客满意度到获得感的发展过程，是指个体在获取某种利益之后，内心深处所产生的一系列主观感受，是一种满足和幸福的积极情绪体验，而这种感受要建立在实实在在的获得基础之上，具有主观性、客观性以及可测性等主要特征。基于此，获得感的结构兼具物质根源和心理根源，物质根源是获得感的基础，心理根源是获得感的核心。而获得感的测量方法应该注重自陈式路径，统计测量指标也需要主客观指标相结合。在技术上，研究者可利用自上而下的方法和自下而上的方法确定合理的指标维度，用主观评定法以及因子分析法确定获得感各指标的权重系数。     

Efficient Inference for Longitudinal Data Varying‐coefficient Regression Models

Informative identification of the within‐subject correlation is essential in longitudinal studies in order to forecast the trajectory of each subject and improve the validity of inferences. In this paper, we fit this correlation structure by employing a time adaptive autoregressive error process. Such a process can automatically accommodate irregular and possibly subject‐specific observations. Based on the fitted correlation structure, we propose an efficient two‐stage estimator of the unknown coefficient functions by using a local polynomial approximation. This procedure does not involve within‐subject covariance matrices and hence circumvents the instability of calculating their inverses. The asymptotic normality of resulting estimators is established. Numerical experiments were conducted to check the finite sample performance of our method and an example of an application involving a set of medical data is also illustrated.     

城市“用工荒”背景下流动人口的返乡决策与人力资本的关系研究

文章利用2010年中国妇女社会地位调查数据,考察了20世纪末以来农村外出务工人员的返乡决策与人力资本的关系。研究发现,近30年来,接受过较高教育的流动者返乡的可能性平均更低,这一模式在各时期保持相对稳定。尽管如此,近年来,拥有农业生产技术的男性流动者更倾向于返乡,且相应效应不断增强。健康状况对流动者返乡决策的影响较为复杂;各时期因健康状况变差而"被动"返乡的情况在不同程度上持续发生。文章认为,流动者往往根据自身人力资本的比较优势决定是否返乡。到目前为止,"返乡潮"并未引发人力资本较高的流动者选择性地回流,其对传统人口流入地"用工荒"的影响更多地表现为劳动力数量短缺程度的加剧,而非优质人力资本的流失。     

简论资本创新逻辑的内在悖论

资本创新是马克思创新理论的重要内容,这一点已经引起学者的关注,但是,资本创新的内在悖论却被忽视。资本创新逻辑的悖论表现为:依托于自然而又破坏自然,带来物的增值的同时导致人的贬值,通过平等的方式创造不平等的社会结构,在破除一切神圣的同时塑造了新的神圣。     

5G赋能时代体育教师智慧专业学习共同体构建

伴随着以5G为代表的互联网技术在我国民用领域正式商用,我国对体育教师的专业素养和信息素养提出了更高层次的要求,并出台多项政策。借助5G的强劲推动力,体育教师专业发展必须实现与5G的深度融合,5G赋能时代的互动性、适应性和灵活性,对体育教师的专业发展、学习方式和学习时空都具有革新作用,建设体育教师智慧专业学习共同体成为提高体育教师专业素养的必然选择。在厘清相关概念的基础上,分析了5G赋能时代体育教师智慧专业学习共同体构建的必要性与可行性,并提出五条构建路径,即搭建“学科-专家-教师”三位一体智慧学习平台、建立线上线下相结合的学习通道、创建校际联合与“晒课”的二元路径、组建不同目标的智慧体育虚拟组织和搭建5G时代的虚拟教室,以促进我国体育教师的专业发展。     

西夏陵没有"圣容寺"

银川西夏陵的考古和研究工作,是从上世纪70年代开始的。陵区北部大型建筑遗址的性质,一直是西夏陵研究的热点问题之一。最初,有人认为是“陵邑”;随后,又有人认为是“祖庙”,笔者也曾持这一观点;最后,笔者更改陈说,认为是“佛寺”,并著文《西夏陵三题》阐述了这一观点。①最近,拜读了贵刊2005年第5期彭向前先生《西夏圣容寺初探》一文(简称彭文)对笔者的“佛寺”说提出不同看法。尽管我不能接受彭文的观点,但是,在当前学术研究缺少不同意见争鸣的情况下,我仍然是很高兴的。问题总是越辨越明。不同意见的争论,有助于活跃学术气氛,深化学术研…     

上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单的路径和措施

目前,在中国(上海)自贸试验区的各项实施制度中,"负面清单"制度是其中重要的一项,也将是未来自贸区可复制、可推广的一项关键制度。对此,可借鉴《美国双边投资协议2012年范本》,将上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单,向全国推广。     

Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.     

Simultaneous estimation and inference for multiple response variables

Multivariate data arise frequently in biomedical and health studies where multiple response variables are collected across subjects. Unlike a univariate procedure fitting each response separately, a multivariate regression model provides a unique opportunity in studying the joint evolution of various response variables. In this paper, we propose two estimation procedures that improve estimation efficiency for the regression parameter by accommodating correlations among the response variables. The proposed procedures do not require knowledge of the true correlation structure nor does it estimate the parameters associated with the correlation. Theoretical and simulation results confirm that the proposed estimators are more efficient than the one obtained from the univariate approach. We further propose simple and powerful inference procedures for a goodness-of-fit test that possess the chi-squared asymptotic properties. Extensive simulation studies suggest that the proposed tests are more powerful than the Wald test based on the univariate procedure. The proposed methods are also illustrated through the mother’s stress and children’s morbidity study.     

Network domains in social networking sites: expectations,meanings, and social capital

This paper examines why the use of social networking sites (SNSs) leads to different results in cultivating bridging and bonding social capital for different groups of people. Based on in-depth interviews of 45 university students in Hong Kong, I find that Mainland Chinese students studying in Hong Kong actively use SNSs for seeking practical information about offline matters, and they obtain substantial enacted support from other Mainland students of the same university through SNS use. As a result, they accumulate both bridging and bonding social capital. Local Hong Kong students, however, use SNSs mainly for social information seeking and are only able to accrue limited bridging social capital through SNS use. Drawing on the theory of network domains, I argue that the different offline network structures in which students are located – namely, homogeneous and closed networks versus heterogeneous and open networks – explain this difference. Students with closed offline networks have defined expectations of online ties; they think of their online activities as practical and leading to real changes in their status among peers. Those with open networks have indefinite expectations of their online audience; thus, they interpret online activities differently, thinking of them as recreational, and they are playful in their online behaviour. These different outcomes of online activities consequently lead to diverse results in social capital accrual.